Dear Friends,
Although Thanksgiving is in the rearview mirror, the C-Change Conversations team is still giving thanks as we head into December. Our “half-full” wine glasses last week were raised in toast to a number of positive trends in the climate space – as well as the just-ended COP27 summit in Egypt.
First, the nearly 200 countries attending COP27 – the United Nations 27th annual conference on climate change – reaffirmed their commitment to limit global warming to 1.5℃ (2.7℉) over pre-industrial levels – beyond which the Earth is expected to pass dangerous and irreversible tipping points. Some observers feared this threshold would have to be abandoned but the international community is still holding this very important line.
Second, multinational corporations took an even more prominent role at COP27 than in the past, urging international leaders toward strong accords and recognizing the role of the private sector in ensuring the transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.
Also during COP27, the U.S. performed a difficult “two-step” – reengaging with China on bilateral negotiations while reasserting U.S. climate leadership on the international stage. This was critically important because the U.S. and China are the world’s two biggest emitters, and without buy-in from both, climate goals are meaningless. At the same time, both countries are vying for global leadership in the climate arena, with Beijing very successfully leveraging climate support as a lead diplomatic initiative in the developing world.
Last but definitely not least, vulnerable nations convinced developed countries to create a fund for “loss and damage from climate-induced disasters.” Unlike past “climate funding” pledges that are geared to avoiding emissions or preparing for future adaptation, this new fund would be for costs that vulnerable countries cannot avoid or adapt to, like the flooding in Pakistan – magnified by climate change – that inundated one-third of the country. It was a recognition that climate damages are “here and now” and that vulnerable nations and geopolitical stability are at risk of being overwhelmed today, not just in the future.
Of course, “half-full” glasses are also “half-empty,” but let’s kick off the holiday season with a toast to progress and optimism.
Sincerely,
The C-Change Conversations Team
Notable Quote
We live in a terrible world, and we live in a wonderful world. It’s a terrible world that’s more than a degree Celsius warmer. But also a wonderful world in which we have so many ways to generate electricity that are cheaper and more cost-effective and easier to deploy than I would’ve ever imagined. People are … making the case that switching rapidly to renewable energy isn’t a net cost; it will be a net financial benefit. If you had told me five years ago that that would be the case, I would’ve thought, wow, that’s a miracle.
Kate Marvel, climate scientist and author
If it’s a miracle, it’s the miracle of human ingenuity. And we need much more of the same as the world continues to heat up.
News of Hope
Even before COP27 began, there were reports of a “shift in the world’s climate trajectory” thanks to other big developments, including America’s new climate initiatives in the IRA law, the election of a pro-climate president in Brazil, and European plans to accelerate decarbonization in response to the continued threat of reduced energy supplies from Russia. In fact, the venerable energy authority, the International Energy Agency (IEA), contends that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to speed the world’s energy transition. The agency also projects that skyrocketing fossil fuel costs are driving faster adoption of cheaper, renewable energy sources and will lead to “peak” usage of coal, oil, and natural gas within the next decade.
As important, the IEA says these changes are driven not only because of climate concerns but also by energy security and industrial policy goals as countries vie to be leaders in the energy industries of the future. And as the article “Beyond Catastrophe: A New Climate Reality is Coming Into View“ clearly portrays, these trends set us on a safer, albeit still grim, trajectory.
As mentioned, political cooperation is fueling some of the optimism – on top of technological innovation and the ever-improving economics of renewables. The cost of wind power has continued dropping and is now 44% cheaper than natural gas in the United States. Solar power is now 33% cheaper. And for those who worry about resilience, it may be surprising to hear that communities electrified by utility-owned solar farms, rooftop solar, and home batteries kept the lights on during Hurricanes Fiona and Ian while most customers were left in the dark all across Florida. (Even in Texas, where fossil fuels rule, renewables helped keep the power on and prices low during a June heatwave.)
Even the “intermittency” problem that has dogged renewables – the irregularity of sun and wind – is being reduced. We’ve shared news about battery innovations in recent months but long distance transmission lines are also important. We’re intrigued to see that the UK has undertaken to build “the world’s largest subsea cable” that will transmit Moroccan solar power from Africa to Britain. It is expected to provide 8% of the country’s total electricity needs by 2030.
In another boost for renewable energy just over the Channel, France has passed new legislation requiring all large parking lots be shaded by solar panels. It’s an obvious win-win for hot and sunny areas – and a proof point for the spreading maxim that “shade is solar’s new superpower.” Look (or lobby!) for solar-shaded lots near you.
It’s not just blacktops that can benefit from shade-producing solar panels. A burgeoning farming practice called “agrivoltaics” is integrating solar panels into farm fields to use the same land for the production of both food and energy. It could become big business [paywall], and it’s only one of an astonishing array of innovations from vertical farming to robotics that may soon transform agriculture as we know it while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The tiny country of the Netherlands has been a leader for decades, and now is the world’s second largest exporter of agricultural products by value.
Solar and wind may be the most familiar renewable energy sources but geothermal is gaining ground – particularly in places such as Croatia where local geology allows the heat from Earth’s core to come closer to the surface. Even less ideal conditions, however, may reap rewards. A Boston start-up is proposing to drill “the deepest hole in the world” to tap heat and energy 12 miles under the Earth’s surface.
At the risk of overloading you with news of hope this month, we’ll end with one more promising innovation: white paint. Scientists from Purdue University have recently developed a heat-beating paint for cars and planes that can reflect up to 98.1% of the sun’s light. Current paint products reflect only 80-90%, and the difference can translate into big savings for air conditioning and energy use.
News of Concern
For all the promising developments at COP27, there were no new commitments for cutting emissions nor notable progress on addressing missed targets. The UN also reminded us that the world must cut emissions some 43% by 2030 to hold that 1.5℃ (2.7℉) line, but emissions are on track to rise by 10.6%. Simply put, we are still not doing enough to avoid irreversible damage to the planet.
Furthermore, new research throws cold water on the plans of many countries to meet their emission pledges by planting trees. The new Land Gap Report calculates there is not enough land on earth [paywall] to plant our way out of global warming while still feeding the population. Agricultural innovations will help, of course – along with carbon removal technologies – but there is still no substitute for emissions reduction.
Also of concern: there’s new evidence that the world’s oceans are heating up faster than ever. The consequences are enormous, including massive ecosystem destruction, more “supercharged” storms, and rising sea levels.
Higher seas could render entire countries uninhabitable, and the impact on the U.S. would be widespread. According to research by Climate Central, at least 650,000 oceanfront properties in this country will be at least partially underwater by 2050 with significant financial ramifications for the insurance industry, community tax-bases, emergency services, utilities, and more. Florida is the most vulnerable state with Louisiana, Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia next in line.
Of course, climate disasters are not just in the future. Readers of this newsletter know that climate attribution studies have causally linked specific catastrophic events to climate change almost as they are happening. More new research has recently revealed that 9 out of 10 counties in the U.S. have endured a climate disaster in the last decade at a total cost of $740 billion. Even people who have not yet been affected directly are feeling the pain in their taxes – with bigger bills yet to come.
And sadly, the draft version of the latest National Climate Assessment (NCA) concurs in nearly identical language. According to The Hill newspaper the report says:
More intense extreme events and long-term climate changes make it harder to maintain safe homes and healthy families, reliable public services, a sustainable economy, thriving ecosystems, and strong communities.
It’s a grim message. But not yet inevitable. To again quote Kate Marvel – one of the NCA’s authors – “The world will be what we make it.” It is in our hands.
Here’s to the spirit of a glass half full.
Notable Visualization
To understand the urgency of climate action, words are not always enough.
Watch and read a remarkable visualization of the biological impacts of extreme heat on the human body.
That’s all for now. From all of us at C-Change Conversations, we wish you the best this holiday season and look forward to bringing you more news of “hope” than “concern” in the future.
