Dear Friends,
October served up more tricks than treats in the climate world. The United Nations issued a sobering report warning that despite countries’ many pledges, our emissions increased to 57 gigatons last year, and we are tracking toward a truly hair-raising global temperature increase. The UN warned only a “quantum leap” in countries’ efforts would enable us to stay at safer levels.
At the same time, nature reminded us that our infrastructure, society, and economy are not ready for our current “new normal,” much less the more intense disruptions ahead as temperatures continue to rise. This was clearly evident as we reeled from Hurricane Milton, straight on the heels of Helene – two hurricanes made explosively more powerful because our oceans are too hot. And in our Southwest, an unprecedented fall heatwave drove temperatures to 113°F degrees in Phoenix.
But there were treats this month as well.
Another report, this one from the venerable International Energy Agency (IEA), audaciously claimed we are leaving the “age of coal” and the “age of oil” and entering the “age of electricity,” defined by rapid growth in the supply of clean electricity and the electrification of transportation, buildings, industry, and agriculture.
They predicate this on the fact that renewable energy, especially solar, is economically outcompeting fossil fuels in almost every corner of the globe. In fact, after recording global growth this year, solar is on track to quadruple by 2030. This would make solar our primary energy source by 2033 and could mean that we are at or near “peak” fossil fuel usage. In fact, some studies show this age of electrification could enable us to cut emissions by 2050, not enough to meet climate goals, but an important downpayment on our future.
If we meld the reports together, we get a clear picture of where we stand. The status quo – unabated burning of fossil fuels – is extraordinarily dangerous and expensive. And the flipside – using innovation to create a better energy system – holds so much promise.
Please read below for many other tricks and treats that occurred in October.
Sincerely,
The C-Change Conversations Team
Notable Quote
“The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters. Around the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods.”
– António Guterres, UN Secretary-General
News Of Concern
It’s no surprise that hotter oceans spawn more powerful hurricanes, but the one-two punch of Helene and Milton was still shocking in its destruction and disruption. The Southeast was deluged with more than 40 trillion gallons of rain from Helene and a preceding rainstorm. Milton hit shore as a Category 3 storm, but en route across the Gulf of Mexico intensified at one of the fastest rates ever, reaching wind speeds of 175 mph, an off-the-chart level that many scientists believe should be labeled a Category 6. Attribution studies confirm both storms were supercharged by climate change.
The magnitude of loss is widespread and almost impossible to process – lives lost, homes gone (many of them uninsured), businesses and tourism throttled, crops decimated. The economic fallout will likely top $50 billion for each hurricane. And because emissions are growing and temperatures rising, we know many storms in the future will be worse.
The extent of the Helene’s damage in the mountains of western North Carolina, an area formerly thought as “safe” from climate change, reminds us that many of the ways we evaluate risk and prepare for natural disasters are antiquated in our new climate-infused world. FEMA flood maps are inadequate and based too much on historical precedent, which left many homeowners unaware of their flooding risk. While insurance companies are finally beginning to factor in climate – one of the major reasons insurance rates rose an average of 52% nationally last year – the real risks associated with living in flood- and fire-prone areas have not yet been priced into our systems or our psyches.
Meanwhile, as these stunning weather events grab our attention, the less-noisy climate crises are growing more and more insidious. Our water cycle – the natural system that moves fresh water and moisture around the Earth – is breaking down. Climate change, coupled with decades of poor land use and water mismanagement, has stressed our fresh water supply so much that our demand may outstrip our supply by 40% – by the end of this decade. And our food supply is increasingly vulnerable because of unceasing drought in the areas of the world where most of our staples grow. This is impacting livestock as well, and meat prices are rising as farmers are forced to cull livestock due to higher costs of alfalfa and grains.
And the fresh water cycle isn’t the only system in peril. Scientists are concerned that we may be closer than we previously believed to a tipping point for the system that controls currents in the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) keeps northern Europe from becoming a frigid landscape and influences where rain falls around the globe. As warmer temperatures cause Greenland’s ice to melt, the incursion of fresh water is changing the ocean’s salinity and density, and therefore the sea’s ability to move warmer water around effectively. No wonder our children and grandchildren are concerned: a new study shows that 85% of American teens and young adults say they’re anxious about how climate change impacts like this will affect their lives.
We need to do better. And thankfully, there are many people trying their best to keep us safe. Before we move into October’s treats, we want to express our gratitude to the scientists and meteorologists who are on the front lines of climate change and telling us the truth. While in some circles they are villainized for linking extreme weather to climate change, we want to recognize the important role they play in keeping us safe and thank them for their hard work and honesty.
News Of Hope
There’s always news that balances the scarier plot lines, and October didn’t disappoint.
While nature is becoming more destructive, humans are raising their game – innovating and investing in ways that could enable us to stay safe and thrive. Here’s an example from the storms: as vast swaths of Florida lost power and flooded during the hurricanes, one planned community stayed lit and dry. Not only was it built specifically to withstand such weather – underground power lines, storm-proof materials, streets that intentionally flood so houses won’t – it’s designed around solar energy and is completely net-zero. It’s proof that we can build to not only survive the storm, but to live comfortably with a lower carbon footprint.
We absolutely love this “radical” thinking in England – stop fighting the sea to abate flooding. As the country experiences some of its wettest weather ever, returning an area of marshland to its natural state has prevented flooding in nearby towns. It’s a win-win too, because marshland absorbs a large amount of carbon. The success of this experiment could help other countries look to natural solutions to stay safer in the short and longer term.
For most of us, our biggest investments are our homes, and Zillow and other real estate listings have begun providing climate risks for flood, wildfire, wind, heat, and air quality for every listing. This could make it easier for us to understand climate risks and potential insurance issues before we purchase a house.
Two bright spots in the energy world last month? Arkansas recently discovered a lithium deposit that could supply the world’s current needs nine times over. This deposit of “white gold” could be a game changer if we can mine it in environmentally safe ways, enabling the U.S. to have a secure and lucrative source for batteries and other clean tech within our borders.
We’re also excited by news that the U.S. is taking a more serious and innovative look at nuclear energy, an area that has languished in our country. As our demand for energy ramps up – driven by AI, data centers, electrification, and our need for increased cooling as temperatures rise – companies like Google are turning to nuclear as an emissions-free source of dispatchable energy. And the U.S. military broke ground this month on Project Pele, building the first transportable nuclear reactor, an important step that could provide a more secure energy source on battlefields in the future.
Finally, while we’ve reported that some Republicans have implored the potential Republican administration to maintain parts of our current climate policies if elected, we’re intrigued to hear voices from Big Oil also chiming in. They are concerned that innovation in carbon capture, hydrogen, biofuels, and other low-carbon technologies, which rely on IRA tax credits, could be lost if the bill is gutted. These are areas that Big Oil has heavily invested in, and are critical to a lower carbon economy in the future.
Notable Graph
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says the U.S. has warmed 0.16°F each decade since 1895 (data does not include Alaska or Hawaii). Precipitation has varied a bit more, but NOAA reports it is increasing overall. The darker the color, the warmer or wetter the year. You can see how your state and county has fared with this interactive tool.
Notable Video
Let’s wrap up the month with a treat. This somewhat campy, but still hysterical, music video from Project InnerSpace, a non-profit dedicated to the “global exponential growth of geothermal.” We love the message and creativity and hope it makes you smile.
