Dear Friends,
Those who care about our changing climate could be a little blue right now. After all, COP29, the 2024 international summit on climate change, was nicknamed by some Flop29, an acknowledgment that agreements coming out of the talks were limited in value.
In addition, the U.S. has elected a new president, one who has pledged to dismantle climate policy and to increase support for fossil fuels, which will lead to higher emissions and lock in more damaging climate impacts.
And yet, while we are deeply concerned about these challenges, we are actually feeling engaged and fired up. In this season of giving thanks in our country, we still find much to be thankful for. We know that climate change cannot be solved simply by forbidding its name to be used by the executive branch (a ploy Florida also tried a while ago). We know the economic rationale behind clean tech will only grow, as it has under every Democratic and Republican administration for the past 20 years. We know cities and states, as well as businesses, will continue to forge ahead – just like they did under the first Trump administration. We know we are all in this for the long game, and while there is much work to be done, there is much to celebrate.
And in that spirit, our newsletter this month will focus solely on the reasons for hope that will help make our spirits bright this holiday season.
Notable Quote
“State governments have long played a key role when it comes to climate policy: three-quarters of the country’s Paris Climate commitments can be achieved by state and local policy. Now, they’re more important than ever.”
— Caroline Spears, executive director of Climate Cabinet
News of Hope
As we wait to see how the incoming administration will approach climate change, state-level policies will be crucial in keeping our transition on track. And it seems that many state governments – and citizens – recognize this. In this recent election, Washington State voters upheld a bellwether law, rejecting a repeal of one of the nation’s most effective emissions reduction programs in the country – a cap and trade system (it uses market mechanisms to drive emissions lower, which successfully solved the acid rain threat, and was supported by conservatives in the past) that has already raised $2 billion for clean-energy measures. Washingtonians are willing to pay a small premium on energy in order to lower their climate exposure – defeating a well-funded repeal campaign waged by a conservative hedge fund billionaire. In California, voters said yes to a $10 billion bond measure to fund projects to help the state prepare for climate impacts such as drought, water supply issues, and wildfire exposure. And Massachusetts voters passed a bill that will streamline and rev up clean energy and encourage natural gas providers to pivot toward providing geothermal energy, a clean energy source. These “wins” show that when climate actions were on the actual ballot, voters supported them in the majority of cases.
For a broader, global view of how swiftly we’re progressing toward a lower-carbon world, consider this: it took 68 years for the photovoltaic (solar) industry to generate one terawatt of power capacity – and the next terawatt took only TWO years. That’s enough to power a billion households, and it’s why solar is poised to overcome King Coal to become the world’s premier energy source in 2025. As technology continues to improve, solar will continue to get cheaper, and the IEA says solar is already the cheapest form of utility energy around the globe. One hot new tech that intrigues us is perovskite panels, a potentially “game-changing” technological improvement that could make solar cells much more efficient, producing 20% (at least) more energy than current cells, and likely making them even more price competitive against other forms of energy – and the first U.S. utility-scale project using them is underway.
Another carbon-free energy source – nuclear – is poised for significant growth. Because it can provide carbon emissions-free “firm” power (not intermittent like renewables), many believe it has a critical role in stabilizing our grid as we move away from fossil fuels. An industry that was lackluster for many years has become a “new” darling with increasing bipartisan support. In fact, McKinsey Global Institute recently identified it as one of the most important high-growth industries. Intriguingly two energy powerhouses are taking note. China, which already creates more than 60% of the world’s new energy from wind, solar, and batteries, is poised to overtake the U.S. as the global leader in nuclear by decade’s end. And in our own country, Texas, which already produces the highest amount of fossil-free wind and utility solar energy in the country, has announced a major new program to boost nuclear power.
As his term winds down, President Biden continues to fund clean technology initiatives around the country, most of which benefit conservative areas and have strong local support. And experts say potential policy reversals will likely not halt the projects that are already under contract to receive funds – now that money has been allocated, it will be difficult to pull it back completely, though disruption is likely.
The fact of the matter is, we do need to spend money to get clean energy and processes up to scale. Once we are there, the savings will be significant. As with any investment, we need to take the long view – and factor in the human costs along with the financial ones if we don’t act. And major oil companies agree that the U.S. must continue to invest and stay at the climate table (aka the Paris Agreement) or we risk handing the lead role – and financial rewards of the energy transition – to China.
The long view also applies to electric vehicles. Having come so far in creating cleaner power, transportation is now our largest emissions sector. China leads the way here as well, with explosive EV growth that experts say should result in an emissions plateau for the country. U.S. momentum is crucial, and some of our biggest automakers are telling the incoming administration they want to continue to make EVs. Consumers agree. Customers who’ve bought an EV generally say they would buy another, especially as they’re costing less and going farther – and the batteries are getting cheaper and safer, too. For example, Ford, Tesla, and others are beginning to use next-gen lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) batteries that don’t use manganese cobalt or nickel cobalt aluminum oxide, which are mined at a significant environmental toll. LFPs last longer, are about 30% cheaper, and are less prone to fires. Makers are still working to improve their range, especially in cold weather, but experts believe they could transform the industry.
We’re seeing potential transformation in so many industries, from building to agriculture to offshore power generation. For instance, 40 makers of concrete [paywall] – which contributes about 8% of greenhouse gases – have pledged to cut emissions by 25% by the end of the decade. Out on the ranges and ranches, scientists are looking for ways to add seaweed to the diet of grazing cattle, which could slash the cows’ methane emissions by 82% and make our burgers more climate friendly. And in Oregon, the first large-scale wave energy project in the U.S. will power thousands of homes with the movement of the ocean, offering a model of offshore power that does not require turbines – and that never stops. Just like the unceasing innovation in clean tech.
And we just love this vision of allowing defunct oil rigs to become artificial reefs throughout our oceans. Recognizing the intrinsic value in the rigs’ very structures, groups are lobbying for these structures to be left intact – it would eliminate the expense and risks of dismantling them and provide crucial habitats for sea life. Intriguingly, offshore wind turbines could also become ocean nurseries even as the blades above the water create clean energy. Win win.
Once upon a time, many of these astounding revolutions in clean tech would have been called far-fetched, the stuff of science fiction. Yet, here we are, turning these “crazy” ideas into reality. We’d like to end with one that literally shoots for the moon – creating storage for the cells of endangered animals there to preserve these species’ futures, in part because climate change is destroying so many habitats. While far from certain it could, or would, ever happen, this type of forward-thinking creativity and science gives us real hope that we will succeed in making the future safer for our children and our planet.
Notable Graph
The years ahead will undoubtedly be bumpy on the climate front, but we are heartened by the experts telling us that while anti-climate policies and positions can slow us down, our energy transition cannot be stopped now. And this chart shows how our progress in creating clean energy just keeps ramping up, no matter what party has been in power over the past 20 years.
Notable Video
Perovskite panels are getting a lot of buzz as we look to make our solar outlook even brighter. But what exactly are they and how might they revolutionize the solar industry? This video sheds some light – take a look.
