Worrying about Climate and AI
Isn’t Crazy. It’s Smart.
By Katheen Biggins
The White House recently suggested that the same “hysterical” people who care about climate change are the ones concerned about the rapid buildout of artificial intelligence. The administration might be onto something.
Not because the AI buildout is driving up emissions – although that is a growing concern. One recent report estimates that the increase in U.S. emissions associated with gas-powered AI and data centers over the next three years could equal Mexico’s entire current annual emissions. Nor is it simply because AI infrastructure can create environmental problems, including air, heat, and noise pollution.
And certainly not because those of us concerned about both issues are simply “Luddites” who shun all technological progress.
It is because climate change and AI share some striking similarities that may not be apparent at first glance.
Climate change is primarily driven by carbon pollution from burning fossil fuels. These fuels have powered the development of our modern world, bringing prosperity and a high quality of life to billions of people. But the very technology that helped build our civilization is now destabilizing the natural systems on which we depend. We are setting in motion changes that, once unleashed, could be impossible to reverse within human timescales.
We have known for decades that burning fossil fuels would harm our planet. President Lyndon B. Johnson was briefed on the dangers of rising carbon dioxide levels in the 1960s. Yet we failed to develop the policies and technologies needed to safely manage our dependence on fossil fuels. Had we acted earlier, we could have avoided much of the damage we are now facing.
The short-term benefits were simply too seductive. Fossil fuels created enormous wealth and prosperity, while the consequences of their use seemed distant and abstract. But now the bill is coming due.
Climate change is already imposing substantial economic costs, from destructive storms and wildfires to rising insurance premiums and damage to infrastructure. The projected losses are staggering. Experts warn that climate-driven insurance costs could make homes, businesses, and long-term investments increasingly difficult to insure at affordable rates. This could put pressure on mortgage lending and banking, creating cascading effects throughout the economy.
And the consequences extend far beyond financial losses. Rising temperatures could make some regions of the world increasingly difficult, or even impossible, for humans and other species to inhabit. Climate change could also intensify competition over dwindling resources, increase migration, and heighten the risks of conflict.
Now consider artificial intelligence.
AI, too, promises enormous benefits and wealth creation. It could transform medicine, scientific research, education, and countless other aspects of our lives. But some of the very experts developing this technology warn that it could also create risks we may struggle to control.
Some fear that increasingly capable AI systems could improve themselves so rapidly that humans lose the ability to manage them. Others warn that AI could make it easier to develop dangerous weapons or enable malicious countries or groups to cause widespread harm.
There is another risk that may be less dramatic than the prospect of AI escaping human control but could be just as consequential: the disruption of our already fragile social fabric.
AI is already displacing humans within the work force and will continue to outperform us in an ever-growing range of tasks. Our prevailing social paradigm values education, expertise, creativity, and hard work. Our work has been an important part of our identity and a guiding tenet of how we organize our days and lives. By replacing or diminishing our value within the workforce and society, AI could foreseeably lead not just to widespread economic disruption but to a deepening social crisis.
The details of these risks are different from those posed by climate change. But the underlying challenge is remarkably similar.
In both cases, we are developing powerful technologies that deliver enormous benefits today while potentially creating risks that could be catastrophic tomorrow. The people and industries benefiting from these technologies have strong incentives to keep advancing them. And the consequences of getting things wrong may not become apparent until it is too late to prevent serious harm.
The goal is not to stop progress. It is to make sure that progress serves humanity rather than putting our future at risk. We need to create safeguards while we still can.
Climate change has taught us how costly it can be to ignore the warning signs of a powerful technology. We should not make the same mistake twice.
