How to Maintain Productivity at Net Zero Emissions.

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Karen Florini is a strategic advisor to C-Change Conversations. She most recently held multiple leadership roles at Climate Central, a non-profit climate science research and communication organization that creates highly localized information on climate impacts and solutions. Previously, she served as Deputy Special Envoy for Climate Change at the State Department. Earlier, she spent more than two decades at the Environmental Defense Fund, working on environmental health and on climate change. Karen has a law degree from Harvard.

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Q: If we are supposed to lower our emissions toward zero (and net zero) by 2050, how will we be able to feed people and transport all of the materials needed to continue the energy transition to renewables and EVs for transportation?

A: Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 while maintaining food production and supporting the energy transition will require a combination of continued and accelerated deployment of key technologies (supplemented by technological innovations) and systemic changes (supported by well-crafted policies). Key strategies include the following (please see the links for more details): 

1. Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems

• Reduce food waste: USDA estimates that in the U.S., food waste is 30-40% of the food supply, with 31% at the retail and consumer level. Making more efficient use of food that is already produced proportionally reduces emissions.
• Decarbonize agriculture: The National Renewable Energy Lab has described numerous ways to minimize emissions throughout all stages of food production:
  • Pre-production
    • Reduced energy and greenhouse gas intensity of production of ammonia for fertilizer and other chemicals
    • Solar and wind water desalination
  • Production
    • Solar and wind-powered pumping and irrigation
    • Electrification of equipment and on-farm activities
    • Anaerobic digestion
    • On-site renewable energy production
    • Precision agriculture
    • Agroforestry
    • Biochar application
    • Enhanced efficiency fertilizers
    • Sustainable intensification
    • Irrigation strategies
    • Cover crops
    • No-till systems
    • Diversified crop rotation
    • Intercropping
    • Feed additives for livestock
  • Postproduction
    • Streamlined distribution chains
    • Use of fuel-efficient transportation
    • Reductions in energy demand for freight travel
    • Solar fruit drying and food production
    • Biomass-powered milling, pressing, and grinding
    • Cogeneration of heat and power in processing
    • Use of renewable energy for refrigeration and other processes
    • Reuse of food waste for energy
    • Biogas production
    • Biomass gasification
    • Biofuels generation
  • Alternative proteins: Alternative proteins reduce emissions associated with traditional livestock farming. New York Presbyterian Medical System describes a dozen non-meat sources of protein. Meat-like alternatives such as plant-based patties, crumbles, and sausages are available as well, as are dairy alternatives including soy, oat, and other plant-based milks and dairy products. (Also see “Feeding a net-zero world,” which shows the relative contribution of various foodstuffs to emissions per gram of protein.)

 2. Decarbonizing transportation, including for material transport

• • Technology solutions: The US Department of Energy identifies the following options (additional details in section 5 of the linked report):

• •  Scaling clean energy for use in transportation (and elsewhere)
    • In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Lab released a comprehensive evaluation of options to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035, finding that there are multiple pathways in which benefits exceed costs. In addition to growing utilization of renewables, they examined contributions from conventional biopower (wood waste, landfill gas, geothermal), bioenergy with carbon-capture and storage, and natural gas with carbon-capture and storage.
    • In its 2021 report “Net Zero by 2050,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) produced a “comprehensive study of how to transition to a net zero energy system by 2050 while ensuring stable and affordable energy supplies, providing universal energy access, and enabling robust economic growth. It sets out a cost-effective and economically productive pathway, resulting in a clean, dynamic, and resilient energy economy dominated by renewables like solar and wind instead of fossil fuels.” The report identifies the following key pillars of decarbonization: energy efficiency; behavioral change (chiefly reducing energy waste and transport mode switching); electrification; renewables; hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels; bioenergy; and carbon capture, utilization, and storage.

(Note: The above-cited materials are deemed generally credible, but citing them does not indicate concurrence with every finding, recommendation, or assumption.)